ASAP (American Solar Action Plan) is a non-profit organization building public understanding about how solar, wind and hydrogen produced from water can make the
United States energy self-sufficient.
2025 ASAP Status Update:
ASAP's 2025 forecast for U.S. PV capacity additions is 40 GW with an 82%-18% split between utility-scale and small-scale PV installations. The PV
forecast builds on the momentum of strong 2024 growth. The PV growth expectations are based on significant increases in U.S. PV manufacturing capacity.
In 2024, U.S. PV capacity additions totaled 37.0 GW, which sets a new annual record. The 35% increase in annual PV capacity additions was supported by an
increase in U.S. PV manufacturing capacity. U.S. PV manufacturing capacity growth is being fueled by the incentives provided in the Inflation Reduction Act.
U.S. PV manufacturing capacity has increased to about 30 GW, which includes about 10 GW of PV module assembly plants utilizing imported PV cells. The
changes in the U.S. PV manufacturing landscape created a large decrease in PV module imports and a large increase in PV cell imports in 2024. This is expected to continue in 2025.
Year-end 2024, U.S. cumulative installed PV capacity stands at 174 GW. Utility-scale PV dominates the U.S. PV market with 121 GW of
cumulative installed capacity (69% share) and is followed by 53 GW of cumulative small-scale PV capacity (31% share). Interestingly, the cumulative
installed PV capacity is now greater than the cumulative installed wind turbine capacity. However, wind turbines continue to produce more cumulative
electricity than PV due to their higher capacity utilization factor.
U.S. wind capacity additions collapsed in 2024 and were a disappointing 5.1 GW. The sharp decline in wind installations is due to political opposition
resulting in transmission and permitting headwinds, as well as manufacturing issues. Cumulative installed wind capacity increased to 148 GW. The prospects
for wind growth in 2025 remain bleak with a 5 GW forecast.
Combined PV and wind electricity generation contributed 17.5% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2024. PV electricity generation was 7.0% of
total U.S. electricity generation, and wind was 10.5% of total U.S. electricity generation. Year-on-year, PV electricity generation increased a
healthy 27.1%. In 2025, PV electricity generation is projected to supply 9.0% of total U.S. electricity generation.
Storage of intermittent PV and wind electricity generation is essential to reduce fossil fuel electricity generation. U.S. battery storage capacity
additions in 2024 was 9.7 GW, which brings cumulative battery storage capacity to 23.9 GW. While battery storage developers state a four-hour storage
capacity, average battery capacity utilization in 2024 was 1.8 hours per day. In essence, battery storage is being applied for modest peak
demand shaving. ASAP's battery capacity additions forecast for 2025 is 12 GW with a 2.0 hour per day storage capacity utilization factor.
While the PV manufacturing goals are modest in comparison to China, they are an encouraging start as
envisioned in ASAP's “Grand Plan for Solar Energy” Scientific American article. Numerous firms manufacturing PV components
have stated that they will build manufacturing facilities in the U.S. Importantly, the U.S. is developing a supply chain for the manufacture of
monocrystalline-silicon (c-SI) PV modules, which is the leading PV technology that is currently dominated by Chinese manufacturers.
ASAP projects strong growth in annual PV and wind capacity additions going forward. Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) extends the solar investment tax
credit, which provides a tailwind for PV growth. In addition, the IRA provides incentives for electricity transmission line infrastructure, which is critical for
rapid growth in PV and wind electricity generation. Several high voltage dc (HVDC) power line projects are in the land acquisition stage of development.
With the knowledge and experience gained, the U.S. is poised for the Terawatt Challenge, 2021-2050.
Commentary:
The societal costs of climate change scenarios, from best to worst over the period 2020-2100, are very sobering. And when the climate change outlook is
extended to the period 2100-2200, the societal costs of climate change become staggering. Climate change scientists are unified in their concern that
climate change outlooks are increasingly disturbing. The longer we delay in making a total commitment to a solar and wind energy system and steep carbon
dioxide reduction, the greater the costs we transfer to our children and grandchildren. The goal is achievable, but only if there is unified
government, business and public support.
2021-2050: Scaling Up! - Solar Grand Plan Stage Two / The Terawatt Challenge:
Summary (see the details):
The U.S. had 77 GW of solar capacity as of the end of 2020. To replace the usage of fossil fuels with solar energy while meeting future growth, on the order of 3 TW of
solar capacity will be required by 2050, an increase of 40 times current capacity! This is the "Terawatt Challenge". Based on the analysis in
the original SGP from 2008, and the in-process "SGP Stage Two", this is
entirely feasible if a variety of difficult but doable challenges can be met:
- Challenge: Energy storage
- Challenge: Distribution, both electricity and hydrogen
- Challenge: Infrastructure siting
2008: Solar Grand Plan:
All the pieces of this world-changing plan actually exist and have been described in
the January 2008 Scientific American “Solar Grand Plan” article, which was co-authored
by ASAP. The object is to stabilize energy prices for generations to come by adopting the lowest cost, unsubsidized solar and wind production and distribution systems.
We believe it is only a lack of public awareness that prevents the Plan from being immediately adopted.
The United States has an abundance of solar and wind energy potential – enough to supply its entire energy needs. This can be done using existing technology and at an affordable price. To get
there requires a coordinated national-level effort. The steps are:
-
Build solar PV plants in the sun-rich desert Southwest
- U.S. located PV manufacturing plants
- Build wind farms in the wind-rich Midwest
-
Build electricity storage to designed to smooth variable PV and wind electricity supply
- Battery
- Compressed air energy storage (CAES)
- Molten Salt
- Construction of a HVDC transmission system to transport PV and wind electricity nationwide
-
All electric transportation
- Battery electric vehicles
- Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles
-
Conversion to electric home and commercial space heating
- Advanced heat pump technology
Electrification of the total U.S. energy system is the only effective way to combat global warming. The largest uses for fossil fuels are electricity generation, transportation, home/commercial
space heating, and industrial processes. Electricity demand will increase significantly to accommodate transportation and space heating. Public adoption of electric cars is important
if we want to end transportation carbon emissions, which is important since transportation accounts for 70% of U.S. oil consumption.
An all PV and wind electricity system will allow us to expand domestic jobs and economic well-being while providing us with a sustainable and emissions free energy path for the future.
The use of carbon-free solar and wind electricity allows us to reduce CO2 emissions in 2100 by 92% below current levels. It is important for the rest of the world to follow suit if global warming is to be tamed.
|
